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The Wrong Question — Part 6: Which assumption failed?
A waste-treatment investment can fail even when the process works. That is a fair reason to question the business case.
01 · The question
Which assumption failed?
But “did black soldier fly (BSF) technology fail?” leaves the next investor with very little to use.
I would ask: which assumption stopped matching reality, and what else depended on it?
02 · The waste
Check the waste first
Start with the waste. Was the suitable, legally usable stream available under a dependable contract? Did the site actually treat the tonnes used in the financial model, through seasonal changes and downtime?
Here is a simple arithmetic illustration: if annual fixed costs stay unchanged but treated tonnes halve, the fixed cost per tonne doubles. That says nothing yet about variable costs or total profitability. It shows why utilisation belongs in the economics.
03 · Dependencies
Follow what depends on it
Then follow the dependencies. Did preprocessing, heating, cooling or drying require more energy than allowed for? Could buyers legally use the outputs, at the specification, volume and net price assumed? Did the financing allow for the actual ramp-up period?
These questions connect. A change in accepted feedstock can change throughput, handling cost and the outputs available to sell. A buyer contract cannot fix an unlawful product route.
04 · Support funding
Keep support visible
If support funding matters, I want its duration and conditions visible, and the result with and without it where that changes the decision.
05 · The comparison
Compare with the current route
Finally, compare the complete route with what the waste owner already has. The outcome may be to improve the current arrangement, test one uncertainty, or stop this proposal.
That is where I would close this series: identify the assumption, trace its consequences, and decide what evidence is needed before the next commitment.
Which assumption would you test first in a waste-treatment investment?
Keep exploring
Related topics and pages
- Before spending on design: the biowaste decision — why a biowaste evaluation should start with the current route
- Is BSF the right answer for your biowaste stream? The evaluation I actually run — the five-question evaluation behind a specific waste stream
- BSF is a waste business — why the waste cost and the local buyer decide whether a case works
Read next
- “The Wrong Question” Part 5/6: is there enough waste? — the previous post in the series, on screening the stream before the facility
- Before spending on design: the biowaste decision — why an evaluation should start with the current route and the decision it needs
- Is BSF the right answer for your biowaste stream? The evaluation I actually run — the five-question evaluation behind a specific waste stream
- Ovatko suurimmat AI-mallit liian älykkäitä tavalliseen yritystyöhön? — a reflection on whether the biggest AI models are more capability than an ordinary task needs
Next step
Test the assumption before the commitment
Manna can help separate the assumptions in a waste-treatment case, trace what depends on them and define the evidence the next decision needs.