BSF is a waste business

01 · The frame

Why I am repeating the theme

There is a reason I am repeating the theme now.

This is the argument I am taking to IFW 2026 in Torino next week.

After the presentation, I will share the full deck and case comparison. Before that, I want to put the frame in public, so the talk does not look like a new direction. It is the same issue from different angles:

BSF only works when it solves a real waste problem.

02 · The reframe

A waste business, not a protein business

Most people pitch black soldier fly as a protein business.

I think that starting point has cost the industry a lot of money.

BSF biowaste conversion is a waste-management business. The job is to recycle one tonne of organic waste for the lowest possible cost. The larvae and frass are not the point. They are outputs you monetise to push that recycling cost down further - ideally below what the waste producer already pays to get rid of the material.

That one shift changes which numbers matter.

03 · The numbers

Which numbers change

If protein is the product, you chase a high larvae price. And then you usually lose, because the realistic ceiling for whole larvae is soy-meal parity, not the 5-13x fishmeal multiples that still appear in optimistic decks.

If waste recycling is the product, the larvae only have to be worth something close to soy meal. That is enough. The protein and fertiliser become the discount that lets you offer a cheaper, cleaner local waste solution.

04 · The question

What lines up at a specific site

So the real question is not:

"Is BSF profitable?"

It is:

"How many things line up at this specific site, and is anything an outright showstopper?"

The stars worth counting are simple:

Cheap, good biowaste. Free, or even negative-cost, and clean enough to convert.
Capital and site already in place. Existing land, buildings or grant-funded CAPEX change the whole equation.
Low operating cost. Labour, energy and climate all matter, but not equally in every region.
A nearby buyer for the outputs. Larvae and frass only reduce the recycling cost if someone buys them at a workable price.
Legislation that lets you sell into the channel you modelled. This is often not a dial. It is a showstopper.

05 · Both ends

Why both ends must be close

And both ends have to be physically close. Feedstock has to exist in volume inside a tight radius, and the buyer has to be close enough that freight still clears. Exports and long-distance haulage quietly kill the margin on both ends.

06 · The proof

What makes a number real

A number is only real once it is checked against a specific producer's actual disposal cost and a named local buyer at a named price. Not regional averages. Not wishful product pricing.

07 · The talk

IFW 2026 and the first question

I am presenting the full three-case comparison on Friday 12 June, 09:15, Room Lisbona, with my co-author S. Danubio.

If you are working on a BSF case, the first question I would ask is not the larvae price. It is: what does the waste producer pay today, and which local buyer is already willing to pay for the outputs?

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