The $100/tn OPEX Target for Live Larvae

01 · Framing

The soy-parity case

The framing first. This is the budget for the soy-parity case — mixed low-quality biowaste, substrate that varies day to day, no lab-grade recipe, no premium clean stream. The realistic use case where BSF competes with soy meal on protein. Not the premium-product game, which needs premium substrate and runs a different model.

02 · The target

The $100 reasoning

Why $100 per ton live.

Soy meal sells at $500–600/tn in most local markets. Match that with whole dried BSFL at 20% gross margin and the dried cost ceiling is ~$400/tn. Live larvae are ~70% water; the live-to-dried multiplier is ~2.9×. $100/tn live × 2.9 = $290/tn dried, plus $50–100/tn drying OPEX, lands at $340–390/tn dried. Soy parity, with margin.

Frass is ~$100/tn live of upside (2 tn frass per 1 tn live at $50/tn). Buffer, not basis.

03 · Cost lines

Where the $100 goes

Where the $100 has to go.

Real cost lines from a 10 t/d semi-automated tropical facility — free biowaste delivered, climate controlled, 17% wet BCR:

Rent + admin + management: ≤ $25
Labor (rearing + processing): ≤ $20
Depreciation (locally-built modules): ≤ $20
Energy (tropical, solar where it works): ≤ $15
Eggs + 5-DOL larvae + breeding: ≤ $8
Consumables + QA + packaging: ≤ $12

= $100/tn live. Every line is a ceiling, not a target.

04 · Substrate cost

When substrate is not free

Now add substrate cost. Watch the model break.

At 6:1 wet BCR every $1/tn paid for substrate adds ~$6/tn on live larvae.

$0/tn → $100 OPEX
$10/tn → $160 (parity gone)
$30/tn → $280 (dead)

Even at 4:1, $30/tn substrate lands $220. BCR cannot rescue a positive substrate cost — substrate is the lever.

Get paid $10/tn to take waste at 6:1 and the model flips: –$60/tn on live larvae. Effective OPEX $40. Frass and gate fee stack on top. Three real revenue streams.

05 · Restrictions

The build restrictions

The absolute restrictions:

BCR below 7:1 (14% wet): do not build.
Substrate cost > $0/tn delivered: margin erodes fast.
Scale below 5 t/d: fixed costs swamp the math.
Climate uncontrolled: BCR collapses to a fraction of model.

06 · Priority order

Hardest lever first

Priority order to minimise OPEX, hardest to easiest:

1. Substrate ≤ $0/tn — gate fee or co-location. Biggest lever by far.
2. Scale to 10 t/d — halves fixed cost per ton.
3. Climatisation — pays back in cycle time and labor productivity.
4. Energy — solar where the sun is.
5. Depreciation — local fabrication, not imported turnkey.

This is the math for ordinary biowaste against soy meal. Premium product is a different model — premium substrate, premium margins, premium risk. Hit $100/tn live on the soy-parity case, or do not build.

What is your real OPEX per ton of live larvae today? Not waste processed. Not dried output. Live larvae.

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