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The 9 numbers we need before we can tell you if BSF will work
In 8+ years across 50+ BSF cases on 6 continents, biology rarely shows up first.
01 · Before the numbers
Before any Analyzer run
8 or 9 in 10 promising-looking cases die long before larvae enter the picture — disposal cost wrong, "free" waste that isn't, seasonal volume sold as annual, feed regulation never checked, site that won't permit.
Every new partner gets the same 9 questions before any Analyzer run. Each produces one number. Numbers below are the real field answers from a Southern African case — used here as a live example.
02 · The waste
Biowaste cost, quality and availability
1. Biowaste cost — what the producer pays today, per ton, all-in (haulage, sorting, tip fees). Field: food waste $1/t, abattoir $1.50/t, sludge $2/t, plant cut-offs $2.50/t. Low is good. Zero or paid-to-take is better.
2. Biowaste quality and blendability — moisture, protein, ash, contamination, seasonality. Field: centralised sources (hotels, abattoirs, markets, food processors) — cleaner than household collection. Blend 3–4 streams to a workable recipe.
3. Availability inside a realistic collection radius. Benchmark: >1,000 t/month inside 50 km. Field: >2,500 t/month inside 30–40 km. Comfortably above.
03 · People and prices
Salary level, feed price and soy meal price
4. Salary level — labourer and qualified staff. Field: ~$112/month labourer, ~$628/month agricultural-degree holder. Some jurisdictions require qualified staff for feed production — cost it in.
5. Commercial feed price — per 50 kg bag, by species. Field: broiler pre-starter $32–34, layer ~$29, pig $21–31, fish $50–65. Your BSF output has to land here or below — locally.
6. Soy meal price — the imported protein benchmark. Threshold: >$450/t makes domestic BSF protein interesting. Field: $480–550/t. Qualifies.
04 · Market, climate and law
Grower motivation, climate and legislation
7. Grower motivation — willingness to try a new protein. Criterion: ~65% of local growers open + waste producers pushing the input side. Field: >65%, driven by cost and supply-security pressure.
8. Climate — working temperature most of the year. Benchmark: >20°C most of the time, or a climatisation budget. Field: 30–35°C summer days, 0–12°C winter nights. Insulated containers cover the gap — affordable, not a rounding error.
9. Legislative framework — can BSF larvae legally go into feed. Field: permissive, active regulator engagement. This is where many European cases stop.
05 · The one number
The minimum viable gate fee
Once the 9 are in, our BSF Analyzer produces the one number the whole evaluation exists for: the minimum viable gate fee in $/ton. At or below the producer's current disposal cost → deal. Above → we walk away and save everyone's time. ~1–2 cases in 10 clear that bar — by design.
The 9 inputs aren't hard to collect — they're just rarely collected before capital is committed. Walking away from 8 or 9 in 10 isn't failure. It's the discipline that makes the cases we accept actually work.
Which of the 9 do you already have data for? Start there.
Keep exploring
Related topics and pages
- Is BSF the right answer for your biowaste stream? The evaluation I actually run — the five-question test that runs on one biowaste stream
- What shows up first in a real biowaste case (it's almost never the biology) — the five non-biology issues that decide a case before larvae matter
- BSF business case evaluation — the process that separates working facilities from the headlines — the wider business frame these 9 numbers sit inside
Read next
- Is BSF the right answer for your biowaste stream? The evaluation I actually run — the five-question evaluation this 9-number checklist feeds
- What shows up first in a real biowaste case (it's almost never the biology) — the five non-biology issues that decide a case before larvae matter
- BSF business case evaluation — the process that separates working facilities from the headlines — how a working BSF facility is separated from a headline
- How a BSF case actually pays for itself: 4 levers, the stack, and why one alone never closes — the four revenue levers that have to stack before a case pays
Next step
Check your 9 numbers
When a BSF case rests on numbers nobody has collected yet, Manna can help gather the waste, cost, price and climate inputs before capital is committed.