Soybean supply and price outlook: What insect farmers should know

Record production and global supply trends

Global soybean production continues to climb to new highs. In the upcoming 2025/26 season, output is forecast to reach about 427 million metric tons, a record level despite lower harvests in the U.S. and Argentina. 

Over the past two decades, soybean production has more than doubled to meet rising demand. Much of the growth comes from South America – Brazil in particular is expected to produce a bumper crop (around 175 Mt) and account for 59% of world soybean exports in 2025/26. 

With ample harvests, global soybean ending stocks are projected to edge up to 124.3 million tons, slightly higher than last year. In short, supply appears robust on a global scale heading into the next few years.

Rising demand: feed vs. food

Animal feed remains the dominant use for soy. 63-70% of the world’s soybean crop is fed to livestock (poultry, pigs, cattle, fish, etc., some studies estimate the amount being up to 80%), indirectly supplying our meat, eggs, and dairy (to human consumption maybe 7-10%). This core feed demand is still growing as producers worldwide seek protein for animal diets. At the same time, human consumption of soy is on the rise. 

The plant-based food and protein industry – which relies heavily on soy ingredients like soybean meal and soy protein – is expanding rapidly, about 7–8% per year, and is projected to reach a market value of ~$19 billion by 2028. Products such as tofu, soy milk, and meat alternatives are becoming more popular. While direct human use of soy remains a smaller slice of the pie than feed, this trend adds incremental demand pressure. 

In essence, the feed sector will continue to command the lion’s share of soy output, but food-grade soy demand is a noteworthy growth area that could tighten available supply at the margins.

China, trade dynamics and stockpiling concerns

China is by far the world’s largest soybean buyer, and its policies heavily influence global trade. In the 2023/24 season China imported roughly 112 million tons of soybeans – about 62% of global soybean imports – mostly to grind into animal feed for its massive hog and poultry industries. This import dependence has strategic implications. 

During the U.S.–China trade war of 2018–2020, Beijing’s tariffs on American soy led to a drastic drop in U.S. exports to China as Brazil filled the gap. Any future tariff flare-ups or geopolitical frictions could similarly disrupt soy trade flows, with one analysis suggesting that renewed heavy tariffs would virtually eliminate U.S. soybean sales to China while straining Brazil’s ability to supply all of China’s needs.

Beijing has also signaled plans to reduce soymeal usage in feed (targeting 10% inclusion by 2030, down from ~13% today) to curb reliance on imports. Yet so far, Chinese demand shows few signs of slowing – imports hit record levels last year. This has raised questions about whether China is stockpiling soybeans. Industry analysts point to a discrepancy between China’s reported feed usage and its huge import volumes, hinting that excess imports may be padding state reserves. 

Reuters noted that China likely prefers to stockpile U.S. soybeans (which have lower moisture and store better than Brazil’s). There is some evidence of tactical stockpiling; for instance, Chinese buyers rushed to secure soybean cargoes in late 2024 ahead of anticipated new U.S. tariffs. While such moves suggest China is building a buffer, direct data on the scale of its soy reserves is limited. Overall, China’s import behavior – whether driven by genuine consumption or quiet hoarding – remains a critical swing factor for global soy availability.

Soybean pricing outlook and feed supply implications

Soybean prices spiked to decade highs in 2022 and have since begun to ease. Projections indicate U.S. soybean prices will stabilize around the $10–$11 per bushel range in the mid-2020s, down from the 2022 peak of $14.20/bu.

After a period of volatility, soybean prices are expected to moderate in the next few years. Global events like China’s swine herd rebound post-2019 and the 2022 Ukraine war drove soy to a high of ~$14 per bushel in 2022. 

However, as those shocks recede and production expands, the market is returning to lower price levels. The USDA projects a U.S. farm price of about $10.25 per bushel for soybeans in 2025/26 (approximately $375 per metric ton), and market analysts foresee average prices in the $11/bu range or slightly below through 2025. Barring unforeseen crop failures or policy shocks, this suggests a relatively stable cost baseline for soy-based feed in the near term.

That said, several supply chain risks bear watching. The feed industry’s heavy reliance on a few key exporters (Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina) means that droughts, farmer decisions, or input cost spikes in those regions can quickly ripple into global prices. Trade frictions remain a wildcard – a sudden tariff escalation or export ban would tighten supply and drive up costs for feed buyers. Likewise, if China accelerates its stockpiling or if the country’s efforts to cut soy use in feed stall, unexpected demand surges could occur. 

For now, the data indicates a well-supplied soy market with gradually growing demand and modest price forecasts. This factual, data-driven outlook should give animal feed producers some confidence in short-term soy availability, even as they remain vigilant about geopolitical and climate-related disruptions.

Implications for insect protein producers

For insect farmers, these trends provide valuable context. Soybean is the chief protein ingredient in conventional feeds, so its price and supply influence the economic niche for alternatives. If soy prices stay moderate and supply is abundant, feed formulators may be less pressured to seek substitutes. 

Conversely, any future soy shortfalls or price spikes – due to trade shocks, sustainability concerns, or surging demand – could open the door wider for insect-based protein to complement or replace soy in feed rations. Staying informed on soy market fundamentals will help insect protein producers position their products as reliable, cost-effective feed components in the years ahead. 

In summary, soy appears plentiful for now, but prudent risk management and diversification (including insect meal) remain wise as the feed industry navigates an evolving global protein landscape.

Sources: Key data and forecasts are drawn from recent USDA reports, industry analysis, and market news from Reuters and agribusiness outlets on China’s soybean import trends.

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